Graphs Maps Lampposts: Modelling Thomas Friedman

Sam Flatery is a scholar working in what is becoming one of the hottest fields in the humanities today, text mining. “Text mining, Flatery explains, “is basically working with a textual corpus to highlight particular recurring verbal patterns. The patterns that we find, once we’ve removed ‘stop words,’ which are the relatively meaningless grammatical terms like auxiliary verbs, prepositions, and articles, can tell us a great deal about a particular body of writing. Analysis of those patterns reveal aspects of the texts that may not be apparent through a traditional close reading.”

Text mining and text analysis are being applied by literary scholars to a wide and diverse range of texts, ranging from traditional literary works such as the novel, to the outputs of the communities that form within social media such as Twitter. Flatery has chosen as his subject the online writings of essayist Thomas Friedman, whose commentary upon changing trends in higher education, published primarily in the New York Times, have become seminal explorations of the application of large scale technologies such as MOOCs (“Massively Open Online Courses”) to university courses.

“We are applying a form of what is sometimes called ‘Distant Reading‘ to Friedman’s works. The point is to analyze his writing and ideas without directly accessing or reading the text itself — we approach it from a distance, with the computer as an intermediary,” says Flatery. “This has all sorts of advantages. For instance, it reduces the impact of particular rhetorical structures on the reader and removes our own biases from the analysis, permitting a far more objective overview of the text.”

“In this case, however, the particular advantage is that I and my graduate assistants are not directly exposed to Friedman’s flatulent prose style or stupefied by the sheer vacuity of his putative insights. Distant Reading insulates us from those effects. And, because we are making this study public, we hope to be able to spare more general readers from having to actually read Friedman too. This is really pretty ground-breaking: our study is the first to explore the potential of Distant Reading as a prophylactic.”

Flatery’s project also applied new principles to its modelling of the data produced by the text analysis of Friedman’s columns. “Initially, we tried some fairly standard approaches to modelling — look for patterns and connections in substantive ideas, for instance. Basically, we came up empty: there really wasn’t a whole lot left after removing stop words and blankly banal restatements of other people’s ideas.”

Undeterred, however, Flatery and his team worked out a new and somewhat more nuanced approach to their data. “What we noticed as we sifted through the indexed words in context was the particular tone that Friedman  took with regard to the subject of higher education in the US. So we borrowed a few principles from Sentiment Analysis, and produced a list of key terms and phrases that could better describe what Friedman was actually communicating. We call it Smugness Analysis.”

Flatery calls up some visualizations to illustrate his findings. “In this particular graph, we’ve measured the Smugness index in one of his articles on MOOCs across time. The colour red indicates complete smugness, while green is merely a moderate degree of complacency. Along the vertical axis, we’ve measured the degree to which he demonstrates his ignorance of his subject. As you can see, there is a clear correlation between the two factors, although it’s not quite 1:1.”

Smugness Index

Flatery, clearly excited by his findings, points to several brightly-coloured peaks on his graph. “Here, where he talks about the benefits of MOOCs in relation to blended learning, you can see a peak in both his degree of ignorance and his smugness. But by the end of the piece, where he is addressing the economic benefits of online learning through MOOCs for financially disadvantaged students, the Smugness index nearly goes off the chart, and there is a kind of wild frenzy of ignorance. Really, Friedman is a master of his art.”

Flatery is understandably enormously excited about the potential for future applications of his methodology. “We’re hoping that our textual strategy of ‘not-reading’ eventually bears fruit in the ‘not-publishing’ of further essays by Friedman. Our next project is to apply these same principles and approaches to the Collected Educational Wisdom of Larry Summers. Not Big Data, of course: actually, the methodological problems derive from the fact that the content of that particular corpus is pretty darn miniscule. But once we’ve worked out the theoretical and technical details, we’ll be publishing our results, and updating them as need be.”

“We’re fairly confident that no one will ever have to read anything actually written by Summers again. We see it as a public service.”

Education Minister to Be Replaced by MOOC

The Hon. Minister MOOC

The Honourable Minister for Training, Colleges, and Universities

The provincial government announced today an innovative new plan to replace the Minister of Training, Colleges, and Universities with a MOOC, or “Massively Open Online Course.”

“We want to show to our universities and colleges that we here at Queen’s Park are really leading the way,” said Brad Duguid, the outgoing Minister in that portfolio. “This is all about finding efficiencies, cutting costs, and streamlining. And, um, of course, about using new technologies to boldly go where no democracy has gone before.”

Some critics have questioned whether the new Minister for MTCU is really robust enough for the rough-and-tumble of Question Period in the legislature, and have wondered aloud how well it will respond to bellicose and insistent opposition members. “Well, this MOOC includes state-of-the-art assessment software,” explains Frank Drake, ITS support person for the ministry. “It employs multiple choice questions and an auto-grading routine. The best thing is that the correct answer is always the same: ‘This innovative cutting-edge technology will help taxpayers re-engage with our educational system.’ Quantitative studies show that you only need to hit people over the head with the same answer a few dozen times before they learn the right answer. We’re predicting enormously improved scores with this platform.”

Multiple choice question

Carefully designed multiple-choice questions guide constituents and opposition members.

Clem Shirty, Innovation Consultant to the government, is even more excited about the potential benefits to be accrued from this new system. “This brings disruptive innovation right to the place that needs it most: our democratic system. Before, members of the general public were completely cut off from their government and its ministers. Now, anyone with an internet connection or mobile technology can connect in seconds to their Minister of Training, Colleges, and Universities. The interface is slick and fun to use: it really gamifies democracy in interesting ways. As you become better at reiterating the government’s educational message and programme, you earn badges! And responsive algorithms ensure that that message is really driven home. As a bonus, the system scrapes and stores the IP addresses of citizens who obstinately refuse to get on message.”

While some have suggested that the high drop-out rates in most MOOCs — as high as 95% or more in many online offerings — will render this approach to governance and policy-making abortive, others have noted that the more opposition MPPs, members of the media, and citizens drop out of the political process, the better it will be for all concerned. “We’re always looking for ways to make the system more cost-effective and efficient, and responding to electors and their representatives all the time — well, that can get quite expensive. I think we’ll see some real financial benefits from this new system,” says Duguid. “And the parliamentary pages we’ll have administering the MOOC are interns, and even cheaper than grad students and adjunct faculty! Meanwhile, they’ll be learning precisely the sorts of technical skills required of our next generation of both citizens, and leaders. It’s a win-win situation!”

The former minister reveals that he is seeking a position lecturing on political science, economics, or law now that he is no longer required at Queen’s Park, but is having a difficult time finding a teaching vacancy at any post-secondary institutions in Ontario.